On this and all the other blogs I read, on all the cable political shows I watch, in newspapers available to me, I have yet to see any serious discussion of possibly the second most important decision each prospective nominee faces this summer other than his VP choice.

That question is - when should each candidate make his annoucement? And should Obama play games and try to force McCain to annouce first?

Because of specific factors this year, this is a particularly interesting question. But before reviewing the them, some history first below...

Just before the Tim Russert news, MSNBC reported that suicide bombers attacked the main prison in Kandahar, and that this resulted in a mass prison break, with all or nearly all prisoners escaping, including hundred of Taliban members.

From their website below:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...

The impassioned and angry strong support for punishing Joe Lieberman is getting a full airing on a recommended diary.

The desire to take action is totally understandable.

The purpose of this diary is to start from the point I suspect we are at, which explains why nothing can and will be done.

I've never posted an "opposite opinion" diary before, but my feeling is that this side of the story needs to be aired, so that people realize that Reid likely has no options.

Just follow the link - Gov David Paterson, who is a Clinton superdelegate, was answering questions from listeners on a NYC radio show - (he is Gov of NY)

He is not changing his vote, but he did worse as far as they are concerned. He questions the validity of changing the rules on MI and FL, and is equally wary of her popular vote formula

I submit this diary with care and some trepidation. If the consensus is that it is unseemly and inappropriate, I will delete it.

Inspired by the picture of a smiling, vigorous looking Sen. Ted Kennedy as he left Mass Geneneal this AM to return home, I can't imagine the very hard time he and his family face. Clearly he deserves all the space and peace he needs for his battle ahead.

But having seen his career, his ability to bring opposing forces together, to reach out to the opposition, and the near universal admiration in which he is held, there is perhaps another great role he could add to his stellar career.

Follow me below.

As many Kossacks know, the very erudite (and progressive) Vanity Fair writer/blogger has been a marginal Clinton supporter, and has written somewhat about his concerns with how some Obama supporters behave.

Without getting into that argument, and without his making any big deal about his evolution, he uses his great writing skills to synthesize perfectly what has happened between Obama and Bush/McCain in the last two days.

Obama back to a lead in Gallup; must have had a real strong Saturday showing

First, some explanations and background.

Andrew Sullivan loathes Hillary Clinton as much as anyone here (he nearly drove me from his site until I realized he was on to something). He is also a major Obama supporter.

And yes, I realize he was awful post-9/11 and going into the Iraq war. He has changed and repented since them on most of this, and his moral outrage and leadership on the torture issue (he regards Bush, Cheney et al as war criminals) has been stellar.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/...

Daily Kos is like my second home, and my admiration for Markos is tremendous.

But he is human, and like all of us, makes mistakes.

One of them was last January, when a number of posters started diaries encouraging Michigan Dems to vote in the open GOP primary for Mitt Romney.

Brief note - TPM reports that today's 3 day tracking indicates a narrowing of the Obama lead to 49-45%.

This four point shift most likely indicates a combination of two better Clinton days Sun and Mon.

If this is anything more than statistical noise, it might indicate that once again Clinton gains whenever it looks like she is being pressured to concede - it may have to do with the reflexive female support for her as the first serious woman candidate, or at least some resentment at the idea of (mostly) men trying to order her to disappear.

In any event, as always, Obama just can't seem to shake her.

Via TPM, from Greg Sargent:

Edwards Didn't Endorse Anyone On Leno Tonight, NBC Flack Confirms
By Greg Sargent - March 20, 2008, 9:02PM
John Edwards just finished up taping his appearance on Jay Leno tonight -- it hasn't aired yet. The fact that he was appearing on the show prompted many to wonder whether he would use the appearance to endorse Hillary or Obama.

The answer: Nope. He didn't endorse either, according to Leno's publicist, Tracy St. Pierre, who emails me this:

No news...it was a catching up interview, but he didn't throw his support either way.
So no Edwards endorsement for now.

The early pre-candidate vote exit poll results are dribbling out. (They have only teased us with this for more than 90 minutes)

For what it's worth, in Mississippi today, only one breakdown given for the candidates:

17(?)-29: O 67, C 32
65+:      0 44, C 55

Anyone care to compare with previous primaries?

Other questions not relevant to vote totals, but it showed that close to 3/4s of Clinton supporters would not be happy with Obama as nominee.

My guess? Definitely less than a 20 point margin (Kos') guess) from these little indications.

Pardon me if this has been written about. And also upfront - I am as ardent an Obama supporter as anyone here.

Also because this was misunderstood, I am rewriting the beginning.

Irrespective of the campaigns official position, might Obama actually be best served by having no MI and FL do-overs, whereas HRC desperately needs them?

This might seem counterintuitive, but I think I see the beginnings of a strategy.

Continued below...

Just had a thought - with the pygmies running in the GOP race, and Giuliani likely toxic (the recent immigration sanity from him won't help), what are the chances that if there is still a divided field that the powers behind the scene propose Petraeus as the nominee?

Yes, there hasn't been a nominee of either party who hasn't faced the primary system since Humphrey in 1968, but delegates do pick the nominee, and assuming that no candidate has majority support (which of course is contrary to recent history), could this be in the back of the Bush/Cheney/Rove braintrust?

As most of you know, California has a fairly easy proposition process which overrides state law and anything the (overwhelmingly Democratic) Legislature can do.

The GOP, clearly led by Karl Rove, wants to fundamentally shift the balance of the national vote by putting an amendment on the ballot to divide California's electoral votes the same way that Nebraska and Maine do - two go to the state wide winner, the others go by CD.

The net effect of this, should it pass, would be to shift 20+ electoral votes to the GOP, enough to change the outcome of many elections to the GOP's favor.

MORE BELOWhttp://www.iht.com/...

I am not from Louisiana, but have a passing knowledge of its election law and local politics. It would be better for someone from there to greatly supplement what I am writing here.

If more details of Vitter's activities arise, and particularly if he is caught lying, it is possible (although unlikely with the tenuous Democratic majority) that Vitter might resign. (An additional reason for this being unlikely it that if other GOP officials are outed, it would be a bad precedent for them). If he does however, it would be at least a short term Democratic pickup possibility, and maybe even ultimately help the Dems add or keep two Senate seats.

More details and thoughts below....

Below the radar, the California State Assembly has hitched on to an intriguing idea.

http://www.latimes.com/...

In brief, they passed a bill and sent it to the Senate a reform to California's electoral vote procedure. If passed there and signed by the Governor, it would begin a process that would forever change the electoral college.

As we watch Dante's Inferno continue to unfold under our eyes. I try to understand what is going on with the administration. In my work and life, I always have found trying to figure out the other guys' motivations is invaluable.

As hard as it is to try to react rationally to these events, it is crucial to think one step ahead of this cabal, likely stage managed by Dick Cheney at every stage.

Why has all this happened? Possible reasons below the fold: